Pillar 03 · Catalyst Engine
Every catalyst, fully modelled. Before the headline lands.
CPI, payrolls, GDP, FOMC, ECB, BOE, BOJ, OPEC, elections, sanctions, earnings — every event paired with consensus, surprise ranges, historical reactions, exposed assets and tactical scenarios.
| Event | When | Consensus | Surprise range | Implied vol | Tactical bias | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | Tue · 14:30 CET | +0.2% m/m core | 0.1 — 0.4 | S&P ±1.1% · 10Y ±9bp | Long duration into print, fade hot | high |
| FOMC | Jan 29 · 20:00 CET | Hold · pause language | Hold (95%) | S&P ±1.4% · DXY ±0.7% | Sell rallies in DXY into hawkish hold | high |
| ECB | Jan 30 · 14:15 CET | −25bp to 2.75% | −25 (88%) · −50 (10%) | Bunds ±6bp · EURUSD ±0.6% | Buy EU banks on dovish-but-data tone | med |
| OPEC+ JMMC | Feb 03 | Maintain quotas | Cut 200kb tail (15%) | Brent ±2.5% | Cheap calendar spreads on cut tail | med |
| BoJ | Mar 19 | Hike 25bp · 64% | Hold (36%) · +25 (64%) | USDJPY ±2.0% · 10Y JGB ±10bp | Long JPY vs G10 high-beta into | high |
| US Payrolls | Feb 07 · 14:30 CET | +170k · UR 4.1% | 100 — 240 | S&P ±0.9% · 2Y ±7bp | Steepeners on cool print | high |